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Heading into training camp, the two biggest questions facing the Colts are not the questions most media outlets are throwing at you. Time for some truthification.
Myth #1: The Colts have to find a receiver amongst their children. I see "analysts" talk about how the Colts have to find someone to play outside receiver and how they have lost so much with Harrison out. This is not true. Any person who watched the Colts play last season knows that Marvin was a very small portion of the offense. He had numbers nearly identical to Gonzalez who only played part time. In reality, the Colts already have their receiving corps and it is none of the new guys. Gonzo and Wayne are split out and Dallas Clark is our slot receiver. Gijon Robinson is our tight end. I am willing to wager that the percentage of downs played by Roy Hall, Pierre Garcon, and Austin Collie will add up to less than 25%.
Myth #2: The coaching changes will derail the Colts. The Colts staff from the Dungy era is out. That is a special teams coach, a defensive coordinator, and about four lesser assistants. In addition, the only offensive coordinator and offensive line coach Manning has ever known in the NFL are gone. This is all supposed to be catastrophic. Not so fast, my friend. In reality, I think the staff has upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot to the benefit of all. This young group needs a firey guy, and the old guy (Ron Meeks) was not it. Meeks has moved on to Carolina, where he will have more control than he did under Dungy. Coyer gets to come to a team with more continuity and a history of backing its coaches. Sure, Shanahan had vast support in Denver, but that was being undermined over the last three years and with the new management the party was over. Coyer will get three good years to make an impression so he doesn't have to sweat early failures. Mudd will be moved into his consultant's role and will probably do mroe grooming than coaching. Moore may get moved to the box, but five will get you ten that his voice is one of those in Peyton's ear on Sunday. Have you ever noticed how Baltimore is able to go after character risky free agents, whether they get them or not? It is because they have confidence in the limitless leadership of Ray Lewis to straighten them out. The Colts have confidence in the limitless mastery of Manning over his position. Manning runs the show, the staff tweeks buttons. Things will be alright.
Reality is inside.
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Reality #1: The running game was smoke and mirrors last year. Addai
is over rated and under motivated. The line was green as a June tomato
and couldn't block a toddler off an Oreo. The biggest problem they
face is getting the run game back into it. I don't think they have to
talent to block for it. I think they have upgraded at the tailback
position. Putting those things together still doesn't make a run
game. You gotta have both. With that in mind, I think that old Tom
Moore can pull a rabbit out of the hat and make something happen. It
will require the Colts to block with five and get the backs involved in
the receiving game. Attack the flats and shallow middle with Addai and
Newbs the same way we did with Edge. I think Newbs can do it. I think
they can find something in the screen game with Newbs too. Perhaps his
biggest asset is that he gets going down hill in two fast steps. We
need that. We can gameplan it in. He can be a difference maker. The
actual run game may be a draft away, but we will move the ball with the
tailbacks.
Reality #2: The problem with the defense will not be the defensive
line. I think the Colts have done a fantastic job bringing onboard
defensive tackles who can make an impact. Moala and Taylor were great
picks, and both could start or contribute heavily as rooks.
Look at this
Here you see the impetus for this pick. If one defensive tackle anchors his spot by grabbing the guy in front of him and pushing him back as hard as he can, the other guy should attempt to shoot his gap assignment. Hopefully one of them draws a double team and the other beats his man at his job. In this scheme, Moala is shooting a gap nearly every time, and look at how good he is against decent talent at Notre Dame and good talent at Cal. He is a monster at the point of attack. Watch how quickly he gets his hands into the offensive guard and how quickly he leverages the guy up. That is football at its most distilled. Once up, Moala has many options. He can hook his arm under and leverage around (which appears to be his best move). He can bull rush and he can swim over with great effect. All of this is defined by his explosion out of his stance and his excellent hand work. Moala is no Warren Sapp. He does not have Sapps indefatigable quality, his pinpoint technique or his overall motor, but Moala can certainly be a significant, Cover 2 defensive tackle in one on one situations. The key will be getting those for him.
With the
addition of Ed Johnson, back from his marijuana hiatus, we have three
big tackles ready to make plays on first and second down. Couple that
with returning players like Eric Foster and Keyunta Dawson and we have
a plethora of third down combinations to put pressure ont eh pocket.
The Problem with the defense will be lingering injury questions with
Marlin Jackson if he does not come out of the gate like a gangbuster
and only stopgap measures at Linebacker. Gary Brackett is aging and
coming off an injury that was quietly very important late in the season
and the inability of Freddie Keiaho to produce last season. Keiaho was
great as a first year starter but tapered off. Clint Sessions was
great as a first year starter last seasona nd hopefully he will remain
strong. The trick will be finding out whether Keiaho improves or if
Wheeler or Hagler can take the job. There is no quick fix here, and
fans will just have to wait and see. I think training camp may tell us
who wants it more but the preseason will show us who has the ability to
start. The Colts need to focus the scouts on middle and weakside
linebackers. Look, I love Gary Brackett, and he can play mike for me any day, but we have to open our eyes ot the need for improvement and depth here. Now is a good time to think about mike linebackers in the draft because the premium is on outside guys, and high caliber inside guys can be found later in the first round because of it. With that in mind, for your consideration, I give you Brandon Spikes
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2008 Cubs Preview
Peter King had a good Monday Morning QB article a few weeks back about the shift in coaches in Indy. He opinion was that you won't notice a bit. Polian's been well ahead of the situation and has been planning for the moment that Moore and Mudd move aside. Brandon Spikes is a beast. Just watch a Gator game and put your eye on him the entire time.