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 I have taken a lot of flak and questioning at the hands of
you scum and villainy for my desire to see the Indianapolis Colts select Cliff Avril in the upcoming
draft. I don’t mind it. It has all been relevant and critical and I
love responding to that kind of critique.
So, as a response, I will rate the 2008 NFL Draft’s Defensive End
prospects in terms of the Colts defense. That
will show a chart of value that should indicate why I think the Colts should
take Avril.
In addition
to ability and potential, I have taken flak as Avril being a “homer” pick. He is and I am not ashamed of it. He is a homer in that he played at Purdue and
I watch a lot of Purdue football. He
plays in Indiana
and I am from there. Purdue has
developed a well-deserved reputation for producing excellent NFL players from
their defensive end position and I think we cannot fully calculate the value of
a player that is properly prepared mentally and physically to succeed. He fits the bill of being a guy capable of two positions within our scheme and if he is considered to be below our draft position he will rise to meet those expectations.
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For those of you wondering how I determined this, it was by comparison. My old roomie, Kelper (aka Hot Tub) is a confirmed technophile and that meant we had a satellite dish and big TV with all the bells and whistles and, most importantly, several DVRs one of which I completely filled with football games and reruns of Ninja Warrior and The Boondocks. I got to watch a tremendous amount of football thanks to the Big Ten Network and 31 flavors of ESPN. In addition to that, I read a lot. In addition to those, I watched all the Combine footage and took notes for guys I liked to fir our (the Colts) game. Specifically for this post, I have watched a lot of youtube highlights and news footage of several guys that I didn't see a lot and wasn't as familiar with in addition to looking up the highlights of the scoring plays of other teams in games they played in to see if I could identify a series of problems that may appear to be regular bad habits. This can most clearly be seen in my lowering the value of Phillip Merling. After watching that stuff I was convinced that some of his good fortune may come from him reaping the benefit of an otherwise solid and balanced club. Lots of teams played Clemson from behind early in games which gave him a lot of opportunities to shine. It wasn't always him shining and it wasn't always a good team he was shining against. On another note, I am compiling this at 4 in the morning after a 14 hour day which was just like every other 14 hour day I have spent the last two weeks building the site model for my wench's Master's Thesis in Architecture. I am not complaining, I just want you ingrates to recognize that mistakes were made and the old Bruce Paine is running on pipe dreams and script meds. Enjoy the content and don't thank me, I can feel your approval through the cosmic hum of upcoming football season.
Onto business
 1 Vernon Gholston - (OSU
6’3’ 265) WHA!? Yeah, I think he is a better prospect
than Jake Long. He is more
naturally suited to play a particular position. His explosion is beyond anything we see
on a regular basis and he will only get better. He has the best first step in the draft,
great pursuit speed, a fantastically high acumen and recognition ability
out of the down stance, good strength when his arms are extended and
unmatched fluidity in his hips at this position. He could very easily put on the bulk to
play NFL end. I think it is a shame
that many teams are looking at him as a 3-4 edge rushing linebacker
because he has had little or no experience at linebacker and is so
prolific at end. His guns remind me of some pumpkins I once had as a kid.
2 Chris "Stop Confusing Me With Jake"
Long - (Virginia 6’3” 275)I think the value between he and Gholston is
really minute but it is something I am willing to be wrong about and have
been discussing at length with a half dozen people. This guy has been evaluated and
re-evaluated a million times and we all know what he is now. I like his motor as a tackle with
another 10 pounds in a cover 2 but I think he will be a waste in a
3-4. I give the scheme credit for
its adaptability and functional disguise, but if you have a guy who can
really make a difference in a down stance I think he can be wasted as an
up backer if not properly employed.
This guy is a great player at the college level, I just like
Gholston a smidge better for what I want to do.
3 Derrick
Harvey - (Florida6’4” and 275) Yeah,
I think he may end up being a little better than Jake Long or Vernon
Gholston but I  admit I am splitting hairs here and being a little partial
to the 4-3 scheme. Harvey is one of
those guys who shows me an ability to completely take over a game from his
position. He is freakishly big and
athletic. He has strength and
speed. He has huge hands, feet, and arm length. What I love best is how,
when run plays come to his side, he extends his arms into the blocker and
is able to keep them off his body so he can shed and attack the ballcarrier. Not only that, but he is doing it
against huge left tackles in the SEC.
That shows real game strength, not just Combine measurables. Benching a billion pounds in the
weightroom is nice for the Combine and it goes a ways towards helping a
person prevent injury, but functional strength like this can only be
evaluated on the field. If you do
30 reps or if you do 15 reps during the Combine it is no indication of
whether or not you can shed a 315+tackle on the stretch run to your
side. Derrick Harvey can. He will be a Top 15 pick and I think he
may be undervalued at that. If
there was a guy for me to take in this draft to do what I want the Colts
to do, it would be Harvey.
 4 Quentin
Groves - (Auburb 6’3” 260) Amazing
athletic ability. A bit of a chest thumper, which, love em or hate em, can be a sparkplug on a young team. Fluid getting out
of stance and in motion. Great
first step. He has size but would
have to add to play end. Can he add
15 to 18? Probably, but I think a
team like the Vikings, Titans or Jaguars would take him as an undersized
end and let him speed rush to his heart’s content for the first year. Why not?
These teams have need at the position and I think he is enough of a
player to warrant a late first rounder.
Jacksonville
looks like a perfect fit to me at 26.
If the Titans pass (if they decide chasing a receiver is their
move) I don’t see how Groves
gets past the Jags and we are talking first round, long before 59. Is a bit of drag down tackler and not the best striker in the open field. He needs bulk, I think. His weight is a natural weight and comes from torso. This picture appears to show leans forearms and wrists which I believe is a indicator that the bulk can be added lean.
5 Cliff
Avril - Tired of talking about it.
His Combine was unreal.
People don’t like to say more about him because Purdue is a
mediocre program that isn’t on national TV. His body of work speaks for itself over
the last two years. This is a guy
that has had to work against some of the best college tackles in the game
from OSU, Michigan, Wisconsin,
and Penn State and he performs. I WILL ADMIT THAT HIS CHANCE TO BE AN
EVERYDOWN PLAYER IS BETTER AT LINEBACKER, but what I want for the Colts is
a backup edge rush and he has it.
He chops, swipes, and it is off to the races. If a guy is a smidge late Avril has
him. I want a guy to spell Mathis
and Freeney, Avril can do this and play strong-side backer.
6 Phillip
Merling (Clemson) I have never thought as highly of Merling as it seems
most do. I hear a lot of people say
he is first round talent but I am not convinced at all. He is young and has all of the size (6’4”
and 275) that you would want at either a 3-4 end or a 4-3 end or tackle
but he seems raw to me. I don’t
think he has performed against the talent level he faces as highly as he
should and I am not convinced of he acumen or maturity as I have heard
nothing of them (which I don’t know to take as a positive or a
negative). He seems a little e
sloppy in his technique. When he
gets low and gets going he is the best leverage guy of the midrange bunch
but he gets stood up a lot and he gets loose in his upper body when countering
and allows himself to be pushed into a squeeze with guards. I think his stature was raised by the
overall success of Clemson, which I attribute to Cullen Harper being good
and their defense being good as a whole.
They had two dandy tackles that helped create a lot of pressure. In their best conference win (Wake Forest), it looks like plenty of
the hurries come from the middle and not just the outside. Still, he has loads of talent to
display. Solid explosion and
leverage which make him a great DE prospect (but not backer) I just don’t see a him as a clear top 25
or 30 pick like so many others.
7 Lawrence
Jackson (USC) Another big chunk of beef at 6’5” and 270 He is a playmaker
on a team of playmakers and it hides one real flaw. He is slow. He is strong as they come and moves his
feet surely and swiftly but he is too slow to play end, lacks proper edge
explosion, and looks like he is filled out. If he could do the Truffle Shuffle and
stack up another 15 he could play tackle in a 4-3 for just about
anybody. A great player, just too
slow coming off the ground.
8 Chris
Harrington (Texas
A&M 6’4” 265) He is the most
naturally sized for end but you could slim him down. Not as quick as many of the players
above him here but sound and productive.
Uses his head a lot as he fakes well and doesn’t get fooled in one
on one situations. Drew double team
all night in the Gator Bowl against Virginia. I remember when Virginia was kicking the crap out of
them early and Harrell didn’t have anything going the announcers were all
over Long, and rightly so. When the
rally started and Tech started pushing Virginia into third downs
Harrington showed up a little and they were saying, “you know, there is
another good end in this game. “
Harrington is a blue-collar player with little upside but and
established record of effort and production.
9 Darrell
Robertson (GaTech 6’4” 245) The
ends are starting to thin out here but Robertson is solid. He is a ripped, smooth athlete with room
to learn and grow. One of the best
at bursting off the line he is a reminder of Robert Mathis in that he
accepts his lack of bulk and moves to counter that by getting to spots
first. Plays well on the big stage
and is as effective disrupting the backfield on run or pass. He tore the holy frijoles out of Notre
Dame. He can play as a strongside
backer, too, and that is why I think the GM picked him for the Colts. He can be the edge rush or linebacker
just like Avril only he can be gotten later with the sacrifice of Avril’s
somewhat superior strength and durability.
10 Calais Campbell (Miami 6’7” and
?) A lot of folks have this guy up
there, but I read several reports that he lacked work ethic or classroom
ability. I have a cousin who
retired to Naples and follows Miami. I emailed him about Campbell on Sunday afternoon and he
said, “Stay away, has not been working out. Newspaper says he weighed 300 at pro
day. Picture looks like he works at
Burger King.” That was a wow to me
since I had thought this guy was a dandy.
I
saw him perform at the Combine and was really confused. This guy used
to be a huge prospect but he couldn't do anything right. He had
horrible feet, horrible. I had seen this guy last season as
asophomore/junior and he was a beast. A maneater. He had really long
arms and the hands to move people around at will. He just mauled guys. I had heard no news
of Miami’s pro day since I moved up to Minnesota. I check the message boards on the
interweb (which is a lovely place to discover fan sentiment and accidental
horseporn) and discover that the fat thing is for real. He has added about 30 bills since the
Combine and the Jacksonville and Miami and the Tampa
area fans, who all seem to understand that they have a need at end, are
screaming to pass on this guy. I
think one indicator that something is up is that a junior coming out early
had a really tough year in the win/loss category and a rough Combine and then disappeared for the pro day. It shows me a guy who might be banking
on a big, NFL payday and then retiring early. It
also might indicate a guy who is following bad advice or coming off an
undisclosed injury. It also might mean that an immature guy is having
a hard time staying focused after a crappy season. Still, if you could
square him away you would have a freakishly talented player on your
hands with nothing but upside. This guy has stats that rivaled Warren
Sapps.
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Nice work Professor Paine. We will see how right you are this coming weekend!
When I think of the DE position I think of lean-ish guys with long arms that are quick like Richard Dent, Howie Long, etc. So, whenever I look at a picture of Gholston and his arms, it makes me wonder if he has the flexibility to make the moves or whatever long arms do for you at the DE position.
I hear you on that, Jack, but I think his arm length is up to the task even if, perhaps, it isn't as extreme as Harvey's. Long arms can create separation from the blocker, create leverage for a player who can swipe from the longest range and get his hands lower to get under the other guy. They can also swat down balls and reach out to grab guys. I don't think Gholston has reach like that of a Jevon Kearse or a a Bruce Smith, but he doesn't need that kind of reach for leverage if he beats the tackle to the angle of attack EVERY TIME which he can do with his unreal burst. He is no Dwight Freeney off the line, but he is pretty darn good.
I would also like to apologize for consistently calling Chris Long Jake, I was tired and rushing things in hopes of getting some content up for the Monday morning regular visitors.
Nice Work Paine...
Quick comment about your post on C. Long!
I give the scheme credit for its adaptability and functional disguise, but if you have a guy who can really make a difference in a down stance I think he can be wasted as an up backer if not properly employed.
Long would probably be used as a DE in the 3-4, with primary responsibility of playing 2 gaps in the down position. His college days prepare him well for this as he took on double teams on a regular basis.
Where as Gholston probably is used as a rush prone linebacker if shifted to the 3-4 scheme.
You are absolutely right. In the 3-4 he would be an end and his first task would be eating enough pancakes to get up to 285 or 290. I have fears, though, that recent success with 3-4 schemes has convinces everyone that any guy who plays end in college can lose or gain weight to convert to outside backer in the 3-4. If he is employed as an end in the 3-4 i think he would get inched into the double team quite a bit given his ability. He would have to be accounted for and would be keyed on in that fashion. I think a team with bigger middle backers could flex to the other side or bunch the backer tight and s[read the linemen out to keep him from being down blocked into a double team. If they do not, they would have to have exceptional pass rushers on the edge backer spots to keep the double off him. I think a big part of his success in that scheme would be his ability to go inside, or underneath on plays when the guard has to drop back to pick up rushing outside backers. He has the skill set to drive that inside gap and press the pocket back into the quarterback. My fear was that the teams near the top that I, at the time, believed most likely to draft him were Miami or Atlanta and I thought that theey may decide their need at backer was strong enough to move him there. Also don't forget that I view nearly everything in the 4-3, my prefered defensive scheme. Ideally, I would put Chris Long in a 4-3 at the left end position. There, he can use what is perhaps his best skill, play recognition, to diagnose the run on the strongside. Who wouldn't want to play linebacker behind this guy? His read are so sharp and accurate you wouldn't even have to shade to the ball, you could just key off of his movements and stay on his hip to chase the play. He is good enough it is almost like he makes the play for you in those mental aspects.