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As I was on my flight yesterday afternoon I thought to myself....if the Cubs don't make the playoffs this season in the weak NL Central then something really bad has to happen. Being a Cubs fan I know that this isn't really out of the realm of possibilities so I started to jot down the things that can ruin the season for the Cubs.
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- Injuries to the starting rotation - The Cubs have enough talent in their starting rotation to not only make the playoffs, but make a run at the World Series. The only problem is....can these guys stay healthy. Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill and Jason Marquis have been healthy for nearly their entire careers but they each threw 190+ innings last year, so will the law of averages catch up with them. With the final starter being either Ryan Dempster or Jon Lieber, the Cubs could be in big trouble if two or three of their starters go down with injuries.
- Injuries to Soriano/Lee/Ramirez - In 2006 it looked like the Cubs would be a team to be reckoned with.....and then Derrek Lee went down with a broken wrist and the season was lost. The same thing could possibly happen this season if Alfonso Soriano, Lee or Aramis Ramirez are injured for an extended period of time. While the Cubs have some depth in their batting order, they don't have anyone to provide the power and speed of Soriano, the consistency and defense of Lee and the clutch hits and power of Ramirez.
- Kosuke Fukudome is a flop - Remember last season when the Cubs offense struggled to score runs consistently at times? That's what the Cubs signed Fukudome for, to provide a consistent ability to get on base and score runs. If Fukudome struggles this season and doesn't provide this to the offense, the Cubs will more than likely be left with the same stagnant, wait/pray for the home run offense they had last season. Fukudome doesn't need to win the MVP Award, but he does need to get on base and score runs consistently for the Cubs to win.
- Geovony Soto doesn't pan out - After running through seven catchers last season the Cubs are hoping that Geovony Soto can follow up his sizzling 2007 season by becoming the Cubs every day catcher. While the Cubs are hopeful that Soto will produce offensively, he'll mostly be counted on to help keep opposing base runners at bay with his arm and to keep the pitchers on their game. Last season when the Cubs were running through their carousel of catchers they always had a back-up plan in place with Soto being in the minor leagues. If Soto doesn't pan out this season, the Cubs don't have any options behind him besides Henry Blanco.
- Power Doesn't Return to Lee - After hitting 32 and 46 home runs with the Cubs in his first two seasons in Chicago, Lee was lost for 2006 with a broken wrist and struggled through 2007 with his power stroke before finishing with 22 home runs. Lee is a professional hitter who will always find a way to get on base and contribute, but if the Cubs want to be an elite team, they are going to need more power production out of their #3 hitter. Lee finished up last season with 11 home runs in August and September so there is hope that he will return to the form that allowed him to hit 30+ home runs consistently.
- Felix Pie can't crack the squad - We've talked over and over about Felix Pie on this site over the last year, so I won't go into too much depth here......Pie has to be the Cubs center fielder this season and if he isn't.....things could be very bad. We already know Pie has the defensive ability to play in the majors, but if he can't contribute offensively, he's kind of worthless to the Cubs. Also, if Pie can't crack the Cubs roster this year his trade value is going to sink to Neifi Perez-like depths and the Cubs probably won't be able to trade him. The Cubs are working out Ronny Cedeno and Eric Patterson in center in case Pie fails and there are some veteran outfielders on the trade block, so there are some other options but another poor showing Pie would be a very dark mark on the Cubs Organization.
- No one puts out the fire - Going into Spring Training the Cubs had three pitchers who were options to be the closer, but what if none of them produce? Kerry Wood has a history of injury problems and can't really be counted on. Bobby Howry really struggles at times to close out games and who knows how long Carlos Marmol is going to last with that funky delivery that seems to put so much stress on his arm. If the Cubs aren't able to find someone to put out the fire at the end of games, the season is going to go up in flames.
(Special thanks to Erin for the pics)
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Just like a Cubs fan, not even a week into Spring Training and the glass is already half empty.
No, no, no....just bored on an airplane.
Snakes on a plane.