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 I'm sorry but it's getting to the point where the 'Johan Santana Sweepstakes' are getting out of hand. The Yankees, by far, have the best package out there for Santana and even though it's horribly in favor of the Twins, they are still holding out for more. Then again, why wouldn't you? You already know the 'new Yankees' have a propensity for going back on their word, as they've done again by adding Phillip Hughes in this situation, so you might as well keep on holding out. The amount of talent the Yankees have on the table in Hughes/Cabrera/etc. is just...too much. I have to believe that GM Brian Cashman is cringing with every new offer the Yanks have put out and wishing the old 'Boss' was back at the helm.
On the other hand, the Red Sox are pretty much toying with the Yankees here. There is no way they are going to make the trade for Santana and if you look really, really close...you can see them setting up to trade for Danny Haren. The main bargaining chip for the Red Sox in all of these trade scenarios seems to be Jacoby Ellsbury because apparently...everyone wants him, but I don't get it. I've taken the time to look up his stats, scouting reports, players comparison and talk to some people 'in the know' about him, so here is my breakdown.
Offensively: Do you like Johnny Damon? Awesome, so do I, especially when he's healthy. Now take what Johnny Damon did in his prime, forget about it and think of David DeJesus because that's what Ellsbury is, if even that. They are both quick little dudes with the ability to get on base and not hit for power. They both strike out about once every other game, so there are no worries there and they get on base a lot. For all the talk about 'speed that can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples'....Ellsbury as an .814 OPS in the minors. That's not HOF stuff there. Ellsbury is by far a better base stealer, but DeJesus got on base more frequently in the minor leagues and actually scored more runs in nine fewer games. Seriously, look at their stats, they are nearly the same player. This is the player who is worth Johan Santana? I mean, DeJesus is a nice major league player but he's not a superstar in the making.
Defensively: Defense wins championships. We all have heard that saying. I have no complaints about Ellsbury when it comes to playing defense. He is what a centerfielder is supposed to be. He has a lot of speed, runs pretty decent routes and has an average arm. He's Kenny Lofton at his best, probably. Still, is that worth Santana?
I understand that there are a lot of other things that have to be taken into account when these trades are made, especially in the price of the contracts. But, why does every team seemingly ask for Ellsbury when they talk to the Red Sox about trades? He is not Johnny Damon, he is not Carlos Beltran. He's not putting on 20 lbs and hitting for power. He is David DeJesus, except he's in a Red Sox uniform. Some of you watch the Red Sox more than I do, so maybe you'll disagree with me, but I think these other teams are just blinded by the nice September Ellsbury had.
Of the six main players that have been discussed in these trades, here
is how they should be valued, in my opinion:
1a. Clay Buchholz
1b. Phil Hughes
3. Ian Kennedy
4. Melky Cabrera
5. Jon Lester
6. Jacoby Ellsbury
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2008 Cubs Preview
Very nice analysis. I agree that Ellsbury is a tad overrated... he's hardly a future All-Star. Solid CF, yes, but then again... so is Melky.
I also agree that they are really setting up the trade for Haren. Good eye there, Cobra.
And yeah, I think the Twins might be shooting themselves in the foot... the Yankees package is good enough, and met their "demands". The New Boss is impulsive; he's likely to lose his interest in this deal very quickly, if he can't get it done...
Bostonites just like his waspy name.
But, if you were the Twins, wouldn't you keep holding out for more because Hank has shown he's willing to give it. He did it with A-Rod, he's already thrown Hughes in there when he said he wouldn't (or at least I thought he said that). He could say forget the Twins and then two days later the Twins could come back and ask for the last offer and probably get it.
Beane said he wants two of Lester, Buchholz and Ellsbury from Boston for Haren. Two of Joba, Hughes and Kennedy from the Yanks.
Crazy.
The Twins lost a great deal of their leverage when Pettitte announced earlier today that he's coming back. You gotta love the timing, too.
He might as well with the way the Santana stuff is turning out. These 'big market' teams aren't being very patient. Santana has already said he wouldn't waive his no-trade clause at midseason, so the Twins are the one's who are forced to trade him now. The Yanks/Red Sox/etc. need to just sit back and make the Twins sweat for awhile.
I think Beane is just playing with everyone at this point. He knows that Haren isn't getting moved until Santana does and the better the package that Minny gets, the better the package will be that he gets for Haren.
Ellsbury will be the AL Rookie of the Year next year, no matter who he plays for.
Could be a tad overrated, but maybe not. I like the kid, and I like his potential. And, call me crazy, but I'd like to see what he can do, at a bargain price.
I don't know how to explain why, but I don't want Santana. He's costing too much, and it's only because the Twins don't want to wait until after next season and then just get two draft picks for him, so they're going overboard. This is all insane, and I'm looking forward to when the craziness ends, no matter how it works out. My prediction? The Yankees get him, because that's how these things always turn out. And, if so, good for them.
I'm sure it would be nice if the Red Sox won the Rookie of the Year Award every season, but I just don't see it happening. If Ellsbury is on the Red Sox, he'll have a hard time beating out Bucholz on his own team. If he's on another team he'll just be a regular .275/.335/.775 player. He'd have to win the batting crown in order to win the ROY on a team other than the Red Sox.
Why do you like him, why do you like his 'potential'? what do you see his potential being? You know the Red Sox, I know the stats...help me see what you guys are seeing.
I don't want Lester and Ellsbury for Haren. Haren is too good to be sending away for a kid that had a decent month of baseball and a pitcher with some health issues...not that he can help that...either way...don't trade Haren to Boston.
If he is to be traded, send him to the National League, not a team that you have to compete against and could possibly see in the playoffs.
The A's seem to be always looking for CF's, so who knows. Beane usually does pretty well on trades, so it will be interesting to see what happens.
Perhaps my Ellsbury love comes from a season of watching Julio Lugo bat lead-off for the Sox. Call me crazy, but I'd like a guy at the top of the order who can get on base, steal bases, and score easily on base hits. I also like that guy when he can play a pretty good centerfield. I like the idea of Ellsbury and Pedroia at the top of a lineup, followed by Ortiz and Ramirez. Just sounds good to me.
I'm not saying he's going to be Hall of Fame worthy. But he put up good numbers in his short time in the majors, and I can only see improvement from there. The pressure in the playoffs is big, but he played well and was instrumental in Boston's success.
I really, really don't care if he ever hits a home run. But, for the record, he did hit three in 116 at-bats in 2007. Give him the same number of at-bats Pedroia had in the season (520), and that translates to thirteen home runs in a season. Or, with different math: he hit those home runs all at home, over the course of 22 home games played. So, in 81 home games, he would hit eleven home runs.
He won't remain consistent and do that necessarily, but it is possible. The point is, for what he brings to the table, he's good, and he'd be a good part of an already good Sox lineup. I'm not saying that I'm as crazy about him as other fans out there (really), but I just don't want Santana. That said, I probably wouldn't be happy to see Ellsbury go for Haren, either, so maybe I am crazy for the kid.
Erin,
Ok, I can see where his value lies to the Red Sox, but for other teams, I don't think it's as much. Yes, he gets on base. Yes, he steals bases. Yes, he can score some runs. He does have SOME value, but he's not the 'superstar in the making' that everyone makes him out to be. In Boston he'll be the guy who hits leadoff and scores runs. In Minnesota he'll be that guy they traded because he wasn't Torii Hunter.
Here are parts of your comment I found...interesting:
"But he put up good numbers in his short time in the majors, and I can only see improvement from there."
You can see him improving upon .353/.394/.903? Really? You think he'll play better than that over the course of 162 games?
As for the home runs....He'll never get to 15. He only has 13 in his professional career! He only had 16 in college.
His value to the Red Sox is much more than it is to other teams because his value lies in him being driven in my other players.
Here is what I think happens....I think he struggles and/or wears down next season if he's with the Sox. He's never played more than 120 games in a season or had even 500 at bats in a season. He'll end up with the stats I mentioned before. He's not getting 60-80 sb's and he's not scoring 120 runs. The Sox will be lucky, next year, if he's an upgrade over Crisp in baseball terms, not contract terms.
All right, as long as we're predicting.
I don't know if he'll improve on the numbers he put up in September and October. He'll become a better ballplayer with experience, but that could mean better defense, or any number of things that wouldn't change those numbers he put up last season.
That said, he will be better than your .335 OBP prediction, no question. He's not Juan Pierre, for god's sake. I'm going to go with .365, just for fun. He had 13 home runs in his career in the minors, but there's an advantage for left-handed hitters at Fenway in that short porch in right field. That's where he hit his three last season, so I don't see why he couldn't hit a few more there with some more playing time. Let's say he hits eight home runs.
The Sox probably won't run him a lot because they're an AL team, but maybe they will because he's fast. Julio Lugo had 33 last season. Jacoby will steal at least 35. And he'll score in the neighborhood of 95-105 runs.
Ellsbury will have a good year. And he will be better than Crisp, both as a ballplayer and as a human being. Covelli Loyce Crisp (I'm not making that up) scored 85 runs, had a .330 OBP, .268 BA and .382 SLG. Ellsbury will be better.
Wishful thinking? Perhaps. But that's the benefit of being a fan. I struggle with objectivity, and then I think, why bother?
Just to clarify so it doesn't come back to bite me later, I said that .335 OBP with another team. With the Sox it would be higher because of the players behind him. He's a better player on the Sox then he would be anywhere else, in my opinion. I think teams forget about this too many times when they sign/trade for players. If he's on the Sox, I'm thinking he's more along the lines of .280/.350.
Don't dog Juan and his career .350 OBP! ha! He somehow ended up at .331 for LA last season....
What's funny about Juan's OBP is the continued upward progression correlated almost exactly with when the Dodgers started to suck and fell out of the race. On August 1, his OBP was .313. On September 1, it was .324. And it was at .331 at the end of the season. He really showed up when it mattered, huh?
I'm sure he would tell you that it's tough for a lead-off hitter to carry a team in September, no? He does that every season as if he's up for a new contract.
I read that post and came here looking to defend Ellsbury but Erin has done a really good job already so I'll just let it go. He's better than your making him out to be.
Is he like Optimus Prime? More than meets the eye? I watched him, and while he was a decent player, he's not the world beater everyone makes him out to be. He is David DeJesus, the stats show it. Now, whether you want DeJesus on your team or not, is up to you.
I'm starting a letter-writing campaign. If Ellsbury remains in Boston, there is no way his song can't be the Transformers theme.
If I had photoshop I'd go ahead and paste an Optimus Prime head over Jacoby's.