So, who's the odd man out, or were the Jones and Monroe trades the precursors to this?

Signing Fukudome was Hendry's top priority this season, so there really isn't an odd man out other than DeRosa will be the full-time second baseman instead of more of a utility player (at least until someone gets injured)

I'm neither excited or disappointed with the signing. Is money a huge issue with the Cubs right now? Will he have a no trade clause? If not, in year 3 or 4 they could toss him over to another team when Colvin or whoever is absolutely ready for the big leagues. I'm sure they would have to eat some of his money. But it looks like they are playing for the now anyway. My main concern is still having Soriano at #1. I hate to say this but I would like to see them still visit the Roberts situation even if that takes DeRosa out of the regular lineup. He would still get plenty of opportunities to play.

You are correct. Money isn't a concern in this situation other than I think they overpaid for a product they don't know will work in the U.S. Payroll for the Cubs at this point is not a concern.

As for Roberts, who the Cubs say they are STILL going after.....if the Cubs get Roberts they almost certainly have to move Fukudome to CF and DeRosa to RF. With Fukudome being almost 31 and playing Wrigley for the first time, I can't think that's a good idea. You can't really take DeRosa out of the regular lineup because of what he brings to the table and they can't just bench him because a) his production says he should play and b) the Cubs told him he'd be the second baseman when he signed with them. I just don't see how they can go after Roberts anymore since they'll have to screw over DeRosa and give up prospects for it. Which brings me to....

In the Sun-Times this morning Jim Hendry is very happy that the Cubs were able to get their #1 guy this off-season without giving up any prospects. That's great and all, but now he's blocking all the prospects, except for Pie. They need to either play or trade Cedeno before he's too old to have any worth. They need to make a move with Eric Patterson. They can't just let these guys sit in AAA. If they aren't good enough to play for the Cubs, trade them for players the Cubs can use. Buy low, sell high.

I can see why people would like Fukudome because he brings a left handed bat to the lineup and an OB% that is very high (from Japan), but.....I just don't think he's going to bring more to the Cubs than they could have got elsewhere, especially for $12 million/year.

On a side note, the Cubs now have two players in their outfield (Soriano and Fukudome) who were benched by their respective teams during the World Baseball Classic.

I think it's a good signing. The money's not a big deal. Fukudome will be a good hitter, will get on base, and is a a better fielder than anyone else the Cubs have ran out there since the Hawk. He'll likely bat 2nd in the lineup.

Colvin is not going to be ready for at least another year, and he's not a lock. If you have a chance to add a player that can help you win now, you shouldn't NOT do it b/c you might block a player that MIGHT help you win in two years.

The Cubs HAD to find a RF for this year. They weren't going run Pagan & Fuld out there every day. Now for the 2nd year in a row, they have gotten the best player available at a position that they needed to fill. Is the money for both of them crazy? Sure, but can you show me a f.a. contract that's been a huge bargain in the last 2 years? The only cheap signings are shots in the dark.

BTW, I'm the annonymous from above. Not sure why my name didn't show.

I do think they should still go for Roberts, and Patterson and/or Cedeno will almost certainly be part of that deal. Derosa would play 5 days a week at a variety of positions - he's already shown that he will do that for the good of the team, even if he'd rather be playing 2nd every day.

a typical lineup against a rh pitcher of:
Roberts
K-Fuk
DLee
Sori
ARam
Soto
Theriot
Pie

ain't too shabby. DeRosa would likely play many games in right against LH pitchers, at least for the 1st couple months.

So you are going to pay a guy $13 million to sit out against lefties so DeRosa can play? That's where the problem comes in. It's like the Cubs are trying to fit a square peg in a circle. They have to keep DeRosa because his value to the Cubs is tremendous. But if you are paying Fuku and A-Ram all that money and you trade prospects for Roberts...what happens to D-Ro? He's the odd man out. No way they have those guys sit out enough games for him to stay fresh.

Not only do the Cubs need to trade Cedeno and Patterson (probably), they also need to trade Murton. He's obviously not taking over an OF spot in Chicago, so you might as well trade him while he's young and still has some value.

What if the Cubs said, screw it to Roberts and went after Tejada instead with a package of Marshall, Cedeno and Murton? They could play DeRosa at second and let Theriot become the utility guy. Tejada's power is draining, but his ob% was over .350 last season and essentially he'd just be an upgrade over Theriot.

If Fukudome could play center, if he was three years younger, things would be so easy but then the Cubs would have wasted Pie and might as well trade him, too. See what I mean about these guys being blocked and their values lowering because of it?

I don't have a problem 'going for it' but if you are going to do it, you need to do something with the prospects you have. Maybe get in the Bedard/Haren bidding with those prospects. Something. You can't have Pie/Cedeno/Murton sitting next to each other on the bench all season because that gives the Cubs a weak bench and lowers the value of those players.

i don't think that Japanese guy will sit out against all lefties, just that DeRo could pick up a game a week in right against a lefty - mostly early in the season while K-Fuk is getting acclimated. Mark would also see time at all four infield spots and possibly left. No, it's not a great plan, but someone WILL get hurt, and DeRo will be there. And that's only IF the Roberts thing comes thru, which is no way a lock.

I do like your idea of going for TeJaDa instead of Roberts, that would solve most of the problems you have brought up, leaving only the Sori batting lead-off headache, that is probably gonna be there for 5 more years anyway.

I'm pretty certain that the Cubs are not done. And that means that some of the prospects you are worried about WILL be gone. Personally, I think Cedeno & Patterson could be solid major leaguers, but never great. Murton could be a decent left fielder somewhere. Pie is the only one of the 4 that I'd hold on to, and he'll get his shot at playing every day this year.

If they can trade those guys and get usable players in return then I'm all for it. Keep in mind though that I'm a believer that the best way to consistently challenge for the playoffs is to have a strong farm system. It just seems like the Cubs are signing veterans to deals that are keeping them from using their farm players, outside of the rotation.

I still think they have enough to win the NL Central but I worry about the long term health of the team.

I was thinking about the Theriot situation over lunch. The bottom line is the lineup is not going to be perfect. I do like the Tejada suggestion and if some how a miracle happened that Pie could produce at leadoff then we would be set. But, that's about a 95% chance of not happening. I'm going to have to think about this whole deal some more.

I hear you, I thought about it during lunch and then again after that. I don't think Pie can hit first, his minor league numbers scream #2 hitter, but maybe Fukudome, which would leave you with....

Fuku
Theriot
Lee
Ramirez
Soriano
Blah, blah, blah...see you have all those righties in a row again, which is exactly what the Cubs don't want. Fuku has to hit 5th or 6th, so Soriano stays up top.

I think the cubs are really, really hoping that Ronny Cedeno wins the SS job this year. And maybe he will, I guess he had a great winter ball year. I'm not so big on him, I think he's not a smart ball player. This is the guy that got thrown out trying to steal 2nd on ball four.

I guess he's about the opposite of Theriot. Lots of talent and potential, but not a gritty/gutty bone in his body or brain in his head. Theriot, at best, could be Eckstein. I hate that bastard, but hey, he got the job done for a long time.

In the end, what the Cubs get from short will be gravy on the cake.

Jack, I agree that the farm system is huge if you're trying to maintain contention. But I don't think the players you produce necessarily HAVE to end up on your ball club. If you can trade said players for BETTER players, or at least ones that fill a need, then the farm system has done it's job. And I think the Cubs farm is getting much better.

Personally, I don't think that any of the youngsters that are on the roster are better, or WILL be better in the next couple years, than Fukudome. And I think Brian Roberts is better than DeRo. So if the Roberts deal works out, I'll be pretty happy w/ the team. I'm not un-happy w/ it as it stands today.

I'm almost certain tho that there is more to come. And we'll be able to judge the F-bomb signing a lot better when we see the final product.

Tejada was just traded to the Astros....

The Cubs can trade the youngsters but they need to get high value players in return. Who are they going to trade them for now, besides Roberts, and get more than they have?

If Cedeno could win that SS spot, they could make a trade for Roberts and let DeRo go play everyday for someone else. Then put Theriot as the utility guy. Once again, I don't want DeRo to go anywhere. But, if they are looking for even more balance and a leadoff guy then that could be an answer. I'm going to let Lou figure it out from here.

I'm just afraid of letting DeRo go. He seems to be the type of ballplayer Lou loves more than chocolate cake. He's a battler

DeRosa's not going anywhere, and I don't have any problem with him as a super-sub type. Makes the bench pretty strong, and is insurance for the inevitable injury.

The thing about the Fukyoudome signing is, who would you rather have as the starting RF'er? Murton? Flat-out HORRIBLE in right. Pagan or Fuld? Can't hit a lick. I've not heard a trade rummor about a RFer that I'd want. And there wasn't an answer in the organization.

Andre Dawson is not gonna walk through that door!

I'd rather have Roberts at second and DeRosa in RF than DeRosa at 2nd and Fuku in RF. I think Roberts gives the Cubs a better option, for now and for the future, based on his contract. Maybe I'm overvaluing DeRosa at this point. I still don't like Fuku though.

I can't believe i just mentioned Cedeno winning SS. I hate that guy. It should be interesting to see this pan out before opening day. Any other options out there on improving SS? I saw Khalil Greene's name mentioned a few times but I'm not that familiar with his play.

Honestly...I think the Cubs would be better off (all around) with Cedeno than Greene. His .291 ob% last season scares me.

I looked around at other shortstops and I didn't find any that the Cubs would want or could get.

Keep in mind that Cedeno is only going to be 25 and he's hit over .350 in both of his stints at Iowa. (140 games total, over 500 ab's)

Fukudome's PECOTA projection is a .400 OBP. God forbid the Cubs sign someone who can actually get on base, right?

You guys are crazy! Fukudome is at least somewhat proven (Japan though) as compared to a Tyler Colvin. Exactly how many prospects have we developed in the past 50 years? Without Fukudome we would see D. Ward and Murton manning right. So we spend $12 million to get a good player.

Looking at the money that T. Hunter and A. Jones got I think Fukudome will be a steal.

The one thing that we are all missing here is that DeRosa performs better as a utility guy and who cares how much he makes. Brian Roberts would be a great addition at DeRosa's expense. Injuries happen and a great utility man is worth the $$$.

What I would like to see Hendry do is use some of our pitching depth and go get Roberts AND an arm like Haren or Blanton from the A's. Marquis and Marshall/Dempster at the end of the rotation is a much bigger question than worrying about Theriot/DeRosa/Fukudome.

Thanks Windier, I was waiting for that one. First, PECOTA does this, "Analyzes similarities with past player-seasons based not only on rate statistics, but also height, weight, age, and many other factors." How are you going to rate what he does in MLB when he's only played in Japan? That's two totally different leagues, no? PECOTA is great, but it is wrong sometimes (I am, too). When you are dealing with players who have been in the majors a long time or you can see some sort of a statistical relevance based on what they've done in the minors PECOTA is great, but...you can't do that with Fuku since he's one of the few Japanese position players to come over to MLB. If they had a larger database of players who have come over from Japan under the same circumstances, then I would be a believer in it, but I can't. I think he'll get on base, but it will be more of a .350-.365 clip, or whatever I said previously

Ronnie: I wasn't saying play Colvin this season, but it bothers me when prospects are blocked for multiple seasons. With Fuku's contract Colvin won't be able to play in Wrigley for another two seasons. This, for a guy who was supposedly being green lighted through the Cubs system.

Hunter and Jones play a different position and have a MLB track record. They are probably overpaid, but the teams at least know what they are getting, in terms of MLB.

As for the belief that DeRosa plays better when he's a utility player, I'm not so sure. If DeRosa can get 450-500 consistent at bats without taking away from Roberts, Fuku, A-Ram, etc. then I'm for it. How they would do that though, I'm not sure.

Maybe 7 months from now I'll go back and apologize because I was wrong about Fuku...actually, I'm hoping that is what will happen. But, right now, after looking at his stats, scouting reports, video(s), first hand accounts of him playing...this is what I see.

As always, we appreciate your comments and points of view.

Hey moron, PECOTA is able to compare Japanese players based on what they do in the Japanese league, just like how PECOTA is able to project players based on their minor league stats. It's not that hard of a concept to grasp. IIRC, the Japanese leagues are somewhere between AAA and the majors in terms of overall quality.

At the very worst, K-Fuk will have a .360 OBP .440 SLG which is a hell of a lot better than you'll get from Jacques Jones.

And since when do Cubs fans worry about money? As long as you idiots keep cramming into that dilapidated dump with all the other frat boys who know nothing about baseball, there will never be payroll issues.

Reds fan...since I don't want to waste TOO much time on you...you are wrong.

PECOTA, as I described before, as it is described by its originator, compares players, not leagues. Since there are not many Japanese players over here like Fuku (since he's supposedly one of a kind) who are you going to compare him to? You can't compare him to Ichiro, you can't compare him to Matsui (either of them). Until there are more Japanese players in MLB it will be difficult to get an accurate read on them in PECOTA terms. Speaking of which....PECOTA, just like many other statistical ratings, is not perfect. They have missed on players before and will again. They will tell you that. It's nice to look at and sometimes they are accurate or close, but it's not exact.

I'm not going to get into the type of people who go to Reds games because...there aren't that many. Certainly not enough to come up with a true feeling on them...kind of like the Fuku PECOTA rating, no?

Have a good one.

For example, and I hate to do this because I don't want to deal with 'stats' at all but it keeps coming up, look at the PECOTA projection they had for Dice-K in comparison to what his stats ended up being and look at their explanation....just not enough information yet to give an accurate reading on Japanese players

Pecota: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=80

Stats: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7906

Okay, I'll play since I'm happy about this signing.

You suggest that there were other options for the Cubs. Well, what were they? What player(s)/platoon would you rather see in RF? Cheaper? Rowand just got a similar deal, but one more year. FA's cost big money nowadays, even mediocre and unfamiliar ones. Known players? Like Geoff Jenkins, Shawn Green, Trot Nixon, or Reggie Sanders? Known, sure, but all are pretty terrible at this point in their careers. Mabry and Sosa are looking for work. Maybe the Cubs could have brought them back to play RF. Point is, the market for RF's is very weak. Fukudome, even being a relative unknown by MLB standards, was still the best FA RF on the market. I'll take him over a mediocre journeyman who's just looking for a job at this point in his career. Been too many of those types on the Cubs the past few years.

You claim he's going to be blocking "highly touted prospect" Tyler Colvin. At this point, it looks more like over-hyped prospect Tyler Colvin. Between A and AA last season he hit .299/.324/.488. Not bad for a 21 year-old in his first season of pro ball, but he's hardly tearing things up in the minors right now. He has a 15/101 BB/K ratio in 492 AB's. Sure, maybe he turns it around and really starts producing, but he's not a prospect anyone should be worried about blocking. He's at least two years away, if he's going to make it at all. Right now, he looks like Jason DuBois.

And who else would Fukudome be blocking? Colvin's the only OF in the Cubs top 10 prospects (according to Baseball America). Vitters plays 3B, Thomas plays 2B, most everyone else is a pitcher (except Soto). Patterson's glove is so bad he's not considered a top-level prospect at this point. Fukudome's blocking no one, and he won't be unless Colvin suddenly picks up his game.

You also seem to over-value DeRosa. I like DeRosa, I think he's a good player, but he's not an everyday RF. His bat is only slightly above-average (.278/.341/.408 career, though he has played better than that the past two seasons), and his OF defense can best be described as adventurous. He's not awful out there, but he's not good. He's an infielder, not an outfielder. I'd rather see him playing at 2B and filling in elsewhere as needed. It's what he's best at.

Let's look at what Fukudome's done in Japan: career .305/.389/.542 hitter, batting title, single season record for doubles in NPB, an MVP, gold glove-level defense. Sure, PECOTA, and other, projection systems, don't really analyze Japanese players very well (mainly due to the problem of translating NPB stats into MLE stats), but they do have some use. The common consensus between Fukudome's projections and scouting reports has him around .280/.370/.460. Add in plus defense in RF, sounds like the Cubs have their first decent RF since Sosa was 'roiding up the place 7-8 years ago.

I can understand the trepidation with this signing, since NPB position players have not always fared well in MLB (Shinjo, little Matsui). Still, others have done well (Ichiro!, big Matsui). Everything I've read about him suggests that he's in the latter class of players, not the former. I don't think anyone sees him hitting more than 15-20 HR's, but he does have a nice line-drive doubles stroke. I could see him hitting 40+ doubles at Wrigley. His biggest plus is his patience at the plate. He's had an OB% over .400 5 of the last 6 seasons in NPB. I don't think .370-.380 OB% in MLB is out of the question. Hideki has managed a career .371 OB% in MLB. Why not Fukudome?

If things stay the way they are right now (no Roberts deal, which I'm against since SS is a much more pressing need than 2B), this looks like the 2008 lineup:

Sori
DeRo
Lee
ARam
Dome
Soto
Riot/Cedeno
Pie

A Sori/Pie/Dome OF looks awesome, defensively. If Pie ends up hitting a little, someone steps up at SS, and injuries are largely avoided, the Cubs look really good next season. Dome isn't going to put the Cubs over-the-top by himself, but he does add above-average production and defense to the team. That's pretty much what $12M/year buys you in today's MLB.

Ok, I'll try to keep it short since I've answered most of these questions before:

1. Who do I want in right? DeRosa or Murton. Trade for Roberts, move DeRosa to RF. Spend on pitching or a shortstop. Roberts, 2yr/$14 million.

2. About Colvin: Before this signing he was on the fast track to the Majors as he was going to start in Iowa (AAA). That means he's up this September if he stays on course.

3. Fukudome signing for four seasons blocks any outfield prospect the Cubs might want to use next to Pie. Murton gets blocked once again. They project to have pretty much the same stats next season. Yes, Murton struggled in RF last season but we all know RF in Wrigley is one of the toughest spots to play in the NL. Give Murton an off-season, with his work ethic, and see what happens. Save $13 million and spend it on, I don't know Erik Bedard or Dan Haren, or whoever they're willing to give up these 'prospects' for. Vitters may play 3b now, but we know how that changes, especially with his questionable footwork.

4. Questions about Fukudome: Career arch. Look at it. He's going to be 31. Go look at ages 26-29 (peak years). If he's like most "natural" players, he's going to be declining. Which is one of the reasons I think the projections are a bit high. On top of that, throw in day games at Wrigley which even Sweet Lou said might take him a year to get used to.

5. I'm not going to get into the Japanese baseball stats converting to MLB. It's a crapshoot for the limited knowledge known at this point.

6. He might add above average production in comparison to Jacque Jones (2007), but not in comparison to the other RF's in the NL. He's just not.

7. You make very good points and as a Cub fan, I hope your 100% right. Again, I hope 7 months from now I'm kicking myself from writing anything bad about the Domer....still, I have to go on what I've studied, read, heard and watched and make a decision based on that. Maybe you see something else, I don't know. I'm pretty good usually in evaluating players, I'm pretty crummy in picking who will win games, but I'm pretty good in evaluating players....275 ba, .350-.360ob%, 12-15 homers, 60 RBI's, 22 doubles, 64 runs. He tops those #'s I'd be surprised.

yur a retard. fukudome may not have much pop, but he hits and gets on base, works the count, and plays great defense. Colvin may end up in center field if Pie doesn't turn it around, and if he does than yes, we can trade colvin in a year or two when he becomes a top prospect at triple A, maybe for a need we have in the future.
FUK-U

while fukudome has played better than i expected...i still don't think he finishes with a ba over .300 for the season. his 'great' defense is overrated as he has a league average arm at this point.