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This weekends matchup features the return of Jay Cutler, pride of Heritage Hills High School and Santa Clause, Indiana. Cutler's Broncos move the ball downfield well but have problems in the red zone and show a knack for poor production uncharacteristic of Mike Shanahan's team. The Colts, who move the ball well and score on nearly every possession, are going against the stiffest pass defense in the League. The Broncos can't stop the run, though, and Indianapolis knows how to run.
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The Contender: Denver Broncos
Key Players: DJ Williams, Jay Cutler
The Champ: Indianapolis Colts
Key Players: Dallas Clark, Dwight Freeney, Anthony Gonzalez
Where: RCA Dome. Indianapolis, Indiana (4:15 on CBS)
Bruce Paine: Section 321, sobering up from the 2007 Backyard Olympics. Last year the Backyard Olympics featured constant rain, 7 kegs for 40 people, 100 burgers and 200 dogs, 3 racks of ribs, six pans of cornbread, one fight, one asswhippin, an ax injury, two appearances by the fuzz, and Bruce Paine talking his way out of a trip to the county lockup. whew, I hope the weather is nice. I hope everything else is the same.
Enemy Blog: Mile High Report, gotta be honest on this one, it was the first one on the google search.
Skinny: The Broncos hate the Colts for the same reason the Colts hate the Patriots, we keep knocking them out of the playoffs. The problem for the Broncos is that the Colts don't notice how much they hate us, we just beat them and move on. There is no reason to think that the Broncos have a chance, they have the ebst passing defense in the league but they can't stop the run. Their offense is young and poor in the red zone where the Colts are great defensively. The end combination of Freeney and Mathis along with an improving Josh Thomas are going to have a field day eating Cutler's lunch. There is a good chance that the last we will see of Cutler is his ankles and cleats, right before Mathis gulps down the rest of him. MMMM, that is good eatin there.
 Robert Mathis once ate Rex Grossman and crapped out Jeff George.
THERE IS ONLY ONE SHUTDOWN CORNER AND HIS NAME IS CHAMP BAILEY. Bailey exists without flaw and he will take the deep route away from Marvin, but that isn't to say that Marvin won't catch balls. Look, this isn't Marv's first rodeo, this isn't the first time this old cowboy has been thrown. Peyton will hit Denver with the run game and dink and dunk the Broncos with the slot receiver be it Clark or Gonzo. Marvin's game will be to press the deep route on first and third downs and to hit that little in route for 9 yards on second down to convert early, or to pop over on that hitch on the sideline for 12 on second and fifteen. Marvin will the end the game 8 for 92 yards and that will be plenty of production. The real test for the passing game on Sunday will be whether or not Gonzalez can move forward in defining a role for himself in this offense. He isn't necessarily being sent on the deep corner on the slam play or hitting a double move post down the seam. These were things that Stokely did effectively and used as a catalyst in the offense. Stokely's ability to find the open spaces on plays like those were what created so much production during his healthy years. Gonzo isn't seeing those routes, or those plays, so it is entirely reasonable to assume that the role Gonzo will play in the next 3 years of so is still up in the air. With two good cover corners in the game for Denver it would be nice to see Gonzo get a couple shots at a deep ball early or be a recurring character in third down personnel situations. When Manning is on the field he uses a lot of personnel sets, which isn't always obvious because it seems like they run the same plays regardless of personnel, and they do. But they are using those sets to discover mismatches and take advantage of a defenses weakness. Game to game a player may find his usefullness in flux dependent on what kind of flow and timing Manning finds with different guys. Gonzo needs to get in there and carve a place out for himself. Would it kill them to run a bubble screen for him or a reverse?
I don't know how Denver will move the ball. They have good yardage totals but are a horrible scoring team. They are going against a vastly underappreciated defense that likes to hit people. I was walking around Friday and I felt something sore around my ribs. I said something about it and Hot Tub said he had the same thing going. I asked around and everybody's ribs hurt. It was then I realized that Bob Sanders was back at practice on Friday and it was residual bruising from all the hitting he was doing at the Colt's facility. Yes, he hits so hard we feel it sixty miles away. It is a little uncomfortable but I don't mind. I sleep soundly knowing that he remains vigilant in the war on terror.
The Colts have used two defenses this season. They have their base Cover 2 and they have a Cover 3/Man Dog Blitz that they bust out occasionally. After seeing the Cover 3 used so effectively against Vince Young I had thought they may become more aggressive and bring Sanders into the box more often but they used their Base Cover 2 against Houston even though I was certain they would blitz more. For Sunday, I see no reason why they shouldn't use the same old Cover 2 with Denver. The Colts front four get tremendous penetration on run plays and the linebackers are tackling very well and the secondary wastes no time in cleaning up. Our corners are averaging about 12 tackles a game. The Broncos haven't run effectively yet this season. The Broncos can throw downfield but the Colts don't give that up very often, and they will invite Cutler to throw into the zone. He will have to take more time to throw the touch ball and lead it well so we will get plenty of coverage sacks. He is a little interception prone, despite completing 65% of his passes. He doesn't worry anybody at this point in his career, but the last time he played a game in the Dome he won the Class 3A State Championship. That is about as relevant as Geraldo Rivera's mustachioed ass.
What is this game? Is it a statement game for Denver? Probably not, even if they were to win they have San Diego and Pittsburgh over the next three weeks, so one win (even over a hated one-way rival) means nothing if they go 1 and 3. Is it a trap game for Indy? No, Indy knows full well what a Mike Shanahan team is capable of and they won't get caught flat footed (at least they better not). This is a blowout unless the Colts play down to their opponent, which they may do. This is a game where the Colts should be able to find the edge on the stretch play and hit the second level on the gut runs. It should be a good game for Addai to discover himself a little. The only real hope the Broncos have is if middle linebacker DJ Williams is able to disrupt the run game. If he can beat Saturday on the gut plays and string out the stretch they might be able to force the Colts into some uncomfortable third down scenarios. But the Colts are a great third down team, so he will have to make an impact on the pass game as well.
Colts 31 - Broncos 10
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A few thoughts before Hot Tub and I load up and head to Indy.
Sand Diego saw 8 and 9 in the box every down last year just like they are this year, so why are they not producing? Because the firing of Marty and the departure of Wade and Cam is that important. When they lost Cam and Marty they lost coaches who have had a lot of success doing their specific jobs. Cam has always been a better coordinator than a head coach and Marty is one of the best run heavy coaches ever. They had a greater understanding of what they were trying to accomplish and were better prepared to deal with the counters opposition would bring. What trick to stop the run has Marty not seen? The Chargers offensive line was better prepared and better coached last year than they are this year. It is that fricking simple.
The Colts are not as veteran as they were last year and that accounts for some of their stagnant performances. They had more experience at most offensive and defensive positions last year despite their stars, and they are trying to reorganize and discover identity within the team again. They are still the champs and they haven't been beaten. Wo be to the who plays them on their breakout game.
Off to the GM's house. Later