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Jul
23
2007

What I'm Watching Over The Next Month.....A-Rod's Run At The Triple Crown

By Jack Cobra  |  Comments (33) | Hype It Up!  |   Filed Under: Baseball | Jack Cobra Archive

Triple Crown Winner?

(Everyone knows I like to make up new topics to talk about and this is another one, so add it to your list. If it catches on.....or I remember to keep writing these, it will become a regular post)

I haven't seen anyone else write about this, so I figured I'd take a crack at it. Over the next month I will be watching to see if Alex Rodriguez can make a run at The Triple Crown. Yes, I just said that. Outside of hitting .400, winning The Triple Crown may be the toughest thing to do in baseball. While home run hitters come and go and no one really pays much attention to who wins the RBI and batting average titles.....to win all three is quite an accomplishment. It actually hasn't been done since Carl Yastrzemski accomplished the feat in 1967. I think A-Rod has an outside chance to do it this season. Now let me back it up with some sound (kind of) reasoning.

First of all, Rodriguez probably has the home run and RBI titles locked up. He's 8 home runs and 17 RBI's in front of his competition. With 34 homers and 99 RBI's it looks like A-Rod is going to end up with something like 55 HR and 158 RBI's. I think that will be more than enough. Now comes the hard part......

Right now A-Rod is hitting (only!) .313. This is 11th is the AL as Magglio Ordonez is leading the way with a .359 average. That's a lot of ground to make up. So, here is what I see happening. Ordonez has struggled through the second half of the season that past couple of years. With Detroit making a run at the playoffs, teams are going to start to pitch around him. The Tigers need him to hit in order to win consistenly, so as the number of pitches he swings at increases....his batting average is going to decrease. With those two factors coming into play, I could see Ordonez dropping into the .330's or so.

With Ordonez dropping, it brings Ichiro and his .346 average into the picture. The next couple of weeks will show us just how good the Mariners are.....I'm going to say they fold. As they exit the playoff race Ichiro's average will drop down to around his career average of .332. Come on, it could happen!

I'm not even going to talk about Jorge Posada and his average. I think we can all agree that it's going to drop like a lead balloon at some point.

This leaves A-Rod 20 or so points away from the batting title, so you know I have to have something up my sleeve. Well, did you know that historically August is A-Rod's best month when it comes to batting average? If he continues to be on fire and the Yankees continue to push themselves back into playoff contention I could see A-Rod tearing through August and finishing it with a line along the lines of .331, 43, 130 heading into September.

Back to reality. This is unlikely to happen because of how everything has to fall into place. Still, it COULD happen and I'm going to keep an eye out for it and so should you.


Leave a comment


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33 Comments
Brian said

The two guys who I see as the biggest threats to him not getting the triple crown are Ichiro and Jeter.

He's also got a shot at winning the triple crown for all of MLB, not just the American League. When was the last time that happened?

gianluca said

AROD's triple crown includes home runs, rbi's and getting teabagged by manly strippers from Scores.

Jack Cobra said

Brian,

For me to figure that out it would require me to use 'the Google' of which I'm not willing to do right now.

Boney said

he's not going to win the triple crown.

he's injected too many steroids since his days of being a .343 hitter in Seattle to be able to maintain a high batting average.

Jack Cobra said

A) that doesn't make any sense, B) He hit .358 in 1996 for Seattle, C) He also had 36 homers and 123 RBI's that year, D) You are just jealous because Magglio's jheri-mullet isn't going to keep him strong all season.

Boney said

actually, if Magglio hits .250 for the rest of the season it won't matter because Detroit will/should be in the playoffs.

your boy Gary Sheffield will cary them to the promised land.

Jack Cobra said

If Magglio hits .250 the rest of the season you won't just get passed by Cleveland, but also Minnesota and New York.

Boney said

you act as if Magglio has been the savior of this bunch... please remember Cobra, most of the Tigers' lineup is hitting at or near .300 for the season, with some serious pop and runs scored. If 1 of them goes down, I'm sure they'll be ok until that person picks it back up.

but then again, I should know better than to talk baseball to a cubs fan :)

(of course, you know I'm kidding).

Jack Cobra said

I think we all know who the straw is that stirs the drink in detroit

hank said

From: Boney
he's not going to win the triple crown.
he's injected too many steroids since his days of being a .343 hitter in Seattle to be able to maintain a high batting average.


I can't believe they let this guy have his own website...scary!

Boney said

of course you should realize that's sort of an inside joke hank.

my sarcasm apparently doesn't reach beyond the realm of the people that have read my comments.

I got your sarcasm Boney... I support your stance on steroids.

Yeah, I figured A-Rod would have an MVP year in what is essentially a contract year for him. I don't think he'll top .320, and even if he does, I don't see Ichiro (or Jeter, ironically) falling below A-Rod in average. If nothing else, it really illustrates how hard it is to win a Triple Crown nowadays.

Jack Cobra said

SML/Boney,

I have your email addy's....If/When A-Rod gets over .320 you can expect daily emails with updates....He's now at .313

Boney said

umm, you can email me all you want about ARod hitting over .320. He's on my fantasy team this year so, I'm in favor of it.

JJ said

Does A-Rod have a chance at the league MVP award in your opinion? Do the Yankees have to get into the postseason for him to get it?

Jack Cobra said

Yes, he has a shot at it. Kind of depends on if the Yanks make a strong run at the Red Sox or not. I wouldn't say they have to make the playoffs, but at least making a strong run would help. If Magglio stays hot though A-Rod has no shot.

Brian said

I think he has it wrapped up right now. Some people are saying Magglio, but Sheff's more important to that team, in my opinion, and he's going to steal some votes.

Jack Cobra said

Sheff is going to Albert Belle himself out of the voting with the way he's been talking. If Detroit wins the AL Central and Magglio has a BA above .340 he wins.

Here is what someone will say about Sheff: They made it to the WS without Sheff last year. He can't be more important than Maggs.

Brian said

They made it on smoke and mirrors last year, Sheff makes that lineup legit.

JJ said

If Sheff steals a few votes from Magglio, that's a good thing. But if Sheff gets enough votes to be seriously in the running, I'd be disappointed. While personality shouldn't determine HOF induction or who sets/breaks records, you can't give an MVP to a guy who even his teammates think is an a**hole.

Jack Cobra said

Hey, I'm not disagreeing too much, but we've all seen some wacky MVP voting over the years. The good news is that there shouldn't be a "can a DH be a MVP?" debate this season.

Brian said

Yep, I can't say I'll miss that debate.

Sammy said

Ichiro may hit .500 this year. You heard it here first. I do agree with your analysis of Jorge though, his freakish average will sink like one of Senor Mehico's puppies wearing cement booties in a Mr. Turtle pool.

Sammy said

Ichiro may hit .500 this year. You heard it here first. I do agree with your analysis of Jorge though, his freakish average will sink like one of Senor Mehico's puppies wearing cement booties in a Mr. Turtle pool.

Sammy said

Ichiro may hit .500 this year. You heard it here first. I do agree with your analysis of Jorge though, his freakish average will sink like one of Senor Mehico's puppies wearing cement booties in a Mr. Turtle pool.

Brian-

The last guy to win the Major League Triple Crown was Mickey Mantle in 1956. Mantle had 52 HR, 130 RBI, and a .353 BA. That's a pretty ridiculous line.

I don't really see A-Rod beating Jeter AND Ichiro in BA, though. He could beat one of them, maybe, if he gets on a serious hot streak. But both is a stretch.

That said, I wouldn't put it past him. A-Rod seems to have really found his groove this year, and I wouldn't be surprised if he went on another tear like he had in May.

And, strictly speaking, I hope A-Rod gets the MVP. I don't even think NY needs to make the postseason, as long as they make a legitimate fight for it. A-Rod has been carrying the Yankees all season, much more so than Magglio. Without A-Rod's RBIs, the Yankees don't have a hope.

And if the Yanks do make it into October, it'll be a blowout for A-Rod.

Boney said

wow... you guys must really not like Sheffield. Considering Thames was their DH for most of the season last year, and they had a hard time scoring runs, I'd consider Sheff's influence over the lineup (see: a lot of .300 hitters and a lot of runs scored) to be extremely valuable when comparing his # to those of a guy who's team isn't going to make the playoffs...

I'm not saying Sheff should be MVP, but I think he has a bigger influence on his team than ARod has on his... both are valuable, but without Sheff, Detroit would not compete especially considering how their pitching has faltered this year.

Sammy said

BTW, that's my unintentional version of the triple crown.

Brian said

Boney,

Sheff has had a great year, and his affect on the team has been tremendous. That's why he's Detroit's MVP, over Magglio. A-Rod is the only Yankee who's had a great year, he's won several games on his own, late in games. He's the MVP, hands down.

I'd also like to see where you weigh in on this debate when the Tigers have another late-Summer meltdown and back into the playoffs, again.

simon said

He's probably not gonna win the triple crown but he does have a chance to do something even more rare. Lead Major League baseball in Runs, RBI and Homers which hasn't been done since Maris in 61.

http://simononsports.blogspot.com/2007/07/arod-compyling-godly-stats.html

Jack Cobra said

Very interesting Simon....

Boney said

Brian,

I can either weigh in on the late season meltdown, or I can comment on the domination of your boys in the playoffs... which is a topic it sounds like, you're still bitter about.

Even after the late season meltdown, they managed to make the World Series.

Boney said

... if you really want to get technical about it.

But please do tell me again how Kenny Rogers is a cheater, or how Zumaya didn't make ARod his b*tch that series.


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