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 After seeing that Justin Verlander threw a No-Hitter against the Brewers last night, the question of why we, as baseball fans are so enamoured with No-No's flashed in my head. The only reason I could think up in that instant was that they were a rare feat that is quite an accomplishment.
Baseball fans love No-Hitters. They also love homers and strikeouts but, these are things we see daily, No-hitters aren’t. There have only been ten this decade. That’s rare and the rarer the better, kind of like steak. But, baseball fans don’t just love No-hitters, they love all rare events including offensive feats of prowess. Regardless whether you prefer defense or offense all fans love rare events of all kinds.
The question arises then, which rare feats do fans enjoy seeing the most? Of course they enjoy seeing everyday plays such as homers and great defensive plays. If they didn't, then every ball park would look like Tropicana Field on game day. But these types of things do happen every day in a league filled with so much talent and it continually brings back fans. But, is it really just homers and other great plays that bring even fair weather fans back? The answer is no. It is that a possibility exists that in each game something great, something rare, something we haven't seen in our lifetime could happen. Die-hard fans don’t need these unlikely events to keep them coming back. They're happy with how a defense is positioned or how a batter makes minor adjustments with a two strike count and rare events are just icing on the cake. That's not to say that the die-hards don't secretly wish for something just plain awesome and unlikely to happen.
With all this talk about rarity it would be nice to know exactly what constitutes a rare event? The best way I know how to figure out what is rare is to know the odds of it happening. The rarest events that happen in baseball can be simply quantified with numbers. It's my guess that the greater the odds, the more hullaboo that occurs with each instance by fans and the media. Below, I have a list of odds for various events that can occur in a baseball game. I believe this list is from ESPN The Magazine a couple of years ago.
Unassisted Triple Play: 1:19,000
4 HR in a Game: 1:14,000
Perfect Game: 1:11,000
No-Hitter: 1:800
Hit For Cycle: 1:800
3 HR in a Game: 1:450
Triple Play: 1:275
Grand Slam HR: 1:35
There you go, the rarest events in baseball. Some of these numbers are staggering, especially when you consider that most of us have seen each of these events take place in our lifetime. But we must remember there are nearly 5,000 regular season games a year and these events still don’t take that place that often. The higher the odds, the higher the excitement that is generated. Let's go over the list:
Grand Slam - It is rather common. Not much excitement unless it puts a team on top, especially in the 9th inning.
Triple Play - Personally, I'm somewhat surprised the Triple Play is more likely to happen than someone hitting three homers in a game. I thought for sure I heard of more three homer games in a season than I do triple plays. I would be more excited to see a Triple Play than see a three homer game.
Three HR in a Game - Still cool to witness. Maybe talk about it a few days to your friends after the game.
Hit for Cycle - Always awesome to see. Just a complete game. When a player just needs a certain hit in his last at bat, the tension is palpable in the stadium to see if it happens.
No-hitter: Never seen one in person but witnessed a few on television. Being there in the 9th inning must be insane. Speaking of insane, Verlander threw 102 MPH in the 9th yesterday. That's nuts!
Perfect Game: Wow, look at those odds jump! I can’t imagine what it would be like to be there. I would probably be shaking somewhat and scared.
4 HR in a Game - I still remember the last Cardinal to do it. Mark Whitten in 1993. I'm not sure if I remember without looking it up the last Cardinal to throw a NO-NO. This as you can see creates lasting memories, so that’s a good thing.
Unassisted Triple Play: CRAZY. Pandemonium! You’re allowed to pee your pants (just a little) if you witness this. We had one this year and it was just the 13th in MLB history. Can you believe in all the years baseball has been around this has only happened 13 times? Congrats to Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies who pulled this off earlier this season.
There’s your list of the rarest events in baseball. Here’s a listing of some of the actual records: No Hitter, Perfect Game, 4 HR, Hit for Cycle, Unassisted TP.
Contact me at buckrampage@gmail.com with any comments.
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2008 Cubs Preview
The two things I find most exciting aren't even listed....stolen bases and triples. While they aren't as rare as the other events you listed; those are the two that I enjoy the most, or look forward to.
Hard-Hittin, Mark Whiten. I remember that game, I think he had 12 RBI too.
Nothing tops the excitement of seeing a No-No in the 9th, live or on TV. I think it's the fact that the excitement just keeps building on itself, and the anticipation of waiting while his team bats and no one talks to him on the end of the bench, makes you feel special that you saw it.
I was real close to listing stolen bases on there, but nothing of that sort was listed in those odds. I like the double steal.
Did they have odds on stealing home?
I didn't find the odds of that happening anywhere. I think those odds would be skewed due to the fact that in the early 1900's it was a much more common deal. Here's the top ten players in stealing home. (Note: it wasn't always a recorded stat so no one knows the real numbers for sure)
Player No.
Ty Cobb 50
Max Carey 33
George Burns 28
Honus Wagner 27
Sherry Magee 23
Frank Schulte 23
Johnny Evers 21
George Sisler 20
Frankie Frisch 19
Jackie Robinson 19
You'll notice these are all old timers. Probably something even more interesting would be someone who pulled the "hat trick" off, stealing all the bases. There's more info in the following link.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0FCI/is_9_63/ai_n6154585/pg_1
every ball park would look like Tropicana Field on game day
Hey, I resemble that remark. Actually saw the DRays get shut out by Jake Peavy the other night. He is good.
I think you meant that you resent that remark. Although, that would be weird looking for you to resemble an empty Tropicana all by yourself.
Jake Peavy is good, you are right about that!
I prefer stolen bases and triples as well. A victory won in the face of decisions made in desperation and moments of calamity are the ambrosia of sports. When the sky is falling around your and something must be sacrificed how does one respond? The essence of competition. A triple always holds those things. When rounding second the runners mind, desperate for oxygen makes a split second decision. A good throw makes a close and calamitous play at third. Beautiful. Like last fall when Shortround hit that deep ball to rightfield and Hot tub decided to go first to thrid and barrelrolled into the third baseman. It was like watching a carwreck when you didn't care if anybody got hurt. Awesome!