Faithful reader Hank left the following comment on the latest Cubs preview:

Whats your thoughts on Zambrano? Is he pitching hurt, or just poorly? 

As always......what the readers want, the readers get. I spent my late Saturday afternoon glued to FOX to catch Zambrano pitch against the NL West leading L.A. Dodgers. I sat down with my pen and notebook and prepared to study. Luckily, it was raining outside so I wasn't missing too much of the real world. You may be able to see how my opinion changed as the day progressed. Here is a rundown of my notes, but first....Zambrano's final line on the day:

Carlos Zambrano, W (5-4)  7.2IP, 2 ER, 8H, 1BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 125 pitches

-1st and 2nd Innings: First of all, the Dodgers have thrown out their JV lineup. No Furcal, no Kent. Carlos started out the game throwing 88-90 mph in the first two innings. This would go in line with what Carlos has said in the past about it taking him time to warm up. He's missing his spots, especially to left handed hitters. Velocity is way down. Doesn't seem to be 'in it' like he used to. Used to pitch every pitch like it was the 7th game of the World Series. Looks to be holding back.

-3rd and 4th Innings: Definately not getting on top of his pitches. His arm slot is way down. He just legged out an infield hit, so maybe he's tired from running the bases? He's not throwing that tailing fastball to the lefties on the inside corner like he used to. Seems like he's almost pitching 'backwards'. Starting hitters off soft and then trying to finish with fastball. Maybe it's all mental. Maybe since he didn't re-sign earlier this season his 'team' of experts is telling him not to push it too much. You would think his velocity would have risen by now. Throwing 87-93.

-6th Inning: Sitting around 93-94 MPH. Maybe he's physically tired now and he's actually pushing himself to throw harder to make it through instead of holding back. Pitch count is rising. He's living on the outside corner, barely coming inside at all.

-7th Inning: Sitting around 93-94. Arm slot is still down, it's messing with his breaking pitches. Gave up 0-2 HR to Betemit. He's pissed, maybe he'll crank it up now. Nope.

-8th Inning: Pitch count is way too high, get him out of there. What is Piniella thinking? Gave up hit to Nomar, walk to Martin. He's done. Never made it up to 96-97 MPH like he used to. Something is wrong.

If you can tell, I went from thinking it was all mental to thinking that it's something physical. Obviously, his arm slot is down from where it was/should be. I scanned around the Internet and found an excellent article by Carlos Gomez at Hardball Times . He goes into much greater detail, has video, etc. so check it out. I'll quote him here though since I completely agree with him and don't want to just steal his work:

Is Zambrano so enamored with the movement he gets with a lower slot that he prefers to not throw harder? Has Zambrano been instructed to pitch to contact in order to reduce his pitch count? Are we to believe that Zambrano has matured so much as pitcher that he prefers to "take a little off" instead of trying to throw it by the hitter?

I'm quite certain that Rothschild has tried to convince Zambrano that he needs to "stay on top of the ball" and "drive down through it." He can point to 2005 and his higher ground ball and strikeout rates. He can also mention his lower walk and home run rates as to why to go with a slightly higher slot. Why hasn't he been able to make the adjustment? These questions (which I don't have the answer to) make me wonder whether there's a health-related issue we haven't heard about.

He pretty much wrote my entire summary right there......So, the elbow is dropping because either his shoulder hurts or he's just letting his elbow drop. I can't read minds and I'm not privy to the Cubs medical records, so I'll leave those questions up to you. I think he's injured, but he has been a mental animal to deal with in the past, so you never know with Z. He pitched decently on Saturday, but it was against a mediocre lineup, at best. Plus, he hasn't really shown any signs of his velocity rising into the range that it used to be (95-98 MPH). If he did that from time to time, I could see that it was just him screwing up the arm slot. Since he hasn't, I have to think something is wrong.

Here is something I want to think about though. During the game Cubs Pitching Coach Larry Rothschild didn't make one trip to the mound to tell Zambrano to keep his arm slot high. Maybe he talked to him between innings, but you would have thought he'd go out there at some point. Especially since Rothschild normally likes going out there. Rothschild has all the videos and deals with Z on a daily basis, maybe he knows something the rest of us don't. Also to keep in mind, the Cubs training staff hasn't exactly been forthcoming in the past few years when it comes to injuries with pitchers. Maybe Z is feeling some discomfort, but is still able to throw 90-93 MPH and they (Z and the Cubs) are willing to live with that? You would think, at age 26, they'd have him at least checked out because of the dropping velocity. Maybe......maybe, Z was a 'greenie' guy and is missing his kick this season. I don't know, just going to throw that out there. We've seen the velocity of some pitchers drop because of that rule, so I just want to make sure it was said at some point.

Also, go check out the column on Mark Prior by Gomez. This guy knows what he's talking about when it comes to pitching mechanics. He has turned into a 'must read' for me and should be for you as well. Plus, the video's are cool.

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